The Drake Equation is an attempt to answer that
question. The equation dates back to one of the great academic retreats in the
history of scholarship: a 1961 meeting at the Green Bank observatory in West
Virginia, which included Frank Drake, a 26-year-old Carl Sagan and the dolphin
researcher (and later psychedelic explorer) John Lilly. During the session,
Drake shared his musings on the Fermi Paradox, formulated as an equation. If we
start scanning the cosmos for signs of intelligent life, Drake asked, how
likely are we to actually detect something? The equation didn’t generate a
clear answer, because almost all the variables were unknown at the time and
continue to be largely unknown a half-century later. But the equation
had a clarifying effect, nonetheless. In mathematical form, it looks like this:
N
represents the number of extant, communicative civilizations in the Milky Way.
The initial variable R* corresponds to the rate of star formation in the
galaxy, effectively giving you the total number of potential suns that could
support life. The remaining variables then serve as a kind of nested sequence
of filters: Given the number of stars in the Milky Way, what fraction of those
have planets, and how many of those have an environment that can support life?
On those potentially hospitable planets, how often does life itself actually
emerge, and what fraction of that life evolves into intelligent life, and what
fraction of that life eventually leads to a civilization’s transmitting
detectable signals into space? At the end of his equation, Drake placed the
crucial variable L, which is the average length of time during which those
civilizations emit those signals.
"Greetings, E.T. (Please Don’t Murder Us.)"
Stephen Johnson
The New York Times Magazine
June 28, 2017
What
makes the Drake Equation so mesmerizing is in part the way it forces
the mind to yoke together so many different intellectual disciplines in a
single framework. As you move from left to right in the equation, you
shift from astrophysics, to the biochemistry of life, to evolutionary
theory, to cognitive science, all the way to theories of technological
development. Your guess about each value in the Drake Equation winds up
revealing a whole worldview: Perhaps you think life is rare, but when it
does emerge, intelligent life usually follows; or perhaps you think
microbial life is ubiquitous throughout the cosmos, but more complex
organisms almost never form. The equation is notoriously vulnerable to
very different outcomes, depending on the numbers you assign to each
variable.
The
most provocative value is the last one: L, the average life span of a
signal-transmitting civilization. You don’t have to be a Pollyanna to
defend a relatively high L value. All you need is to believe that it is
possible for civilizations to become fundamentally self-sustaining and
survive for millions of years. Even if one in a thousand intelligent
life-forms in space generates a million-year civilization, the value of L
increases meaningfully. But if your L-value is low, that implies a
further question: What is keeping it low? Do technological civilizations
keep flickering on and off in the Milky Way, like so many fireflies in
space? Do they run out of resources? Do they blow themselves up?"
"Greetings, E.T. (Please Don’t Murder Us.)"
Stephen Johnson
The New York Times Magazine
June 28, 2017
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